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The Visionary Reference Scenario method, developed by ALVA, helps deal with the visionary-realistic paradox by offering the simplicity and clarity of a single image of the future, while still transparently exploring the uncertainty that comes with exploring the future.
It applies a “To the best of our knowledge today” approach that is not meant to emulate business as usual but rather identify patterns of change and provisional knowledge about the future.
The central goal is not to build a matrix or a set of contrasting scenarios but to reach a consensus on the most plausible evolution of the key variables, while also identifying the most important areas of dissensus.
In other words, what is the future that we collectively anticipate in the present?
Our methodology has been used by major companies such as EDP and been published in:
Alvarenga, A.; Bana e Costa, C.; Borrel, C.; et al. (2019) Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience. International Journal for Equity in Health 18 (100). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8.
Alvarenga, A., Furtado, A., Barros, M., & Carvalho, M. (2023) Future Foresight Book of Knowledge Level 2: Certified Foresight Leader. ALVA R&C. Cambridge, MA: GIMI - Global Innovation Management Institute.
Alvarenga, A., Vieira, A. C. L. (2025). Chapter 18: Methodological Exploration of Improved Reference Scenario Approaches – A Case Study in NOVA Executive Education. In M. M. Crawford & G. Wright (Eds.), Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking. Edward Elgar.
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