Relevant Foresight schools of thought and authors

There have been few attempts to trace back the history of Foresight as a recognized practice, and most seem to agree that the discipline only truly appeared in the mid-20th century as a structured and disseminated approach. The Post-War was indeed when the idea of Foresight schools of thought emerged and several frameworks were created, and since then many new thinkers and authors have contributed to those same schools of thought.

Here we highlight academics and practitioners that have significantly contributed to the Foresight field:

The Intuitive Logics school of Foresight developed its basic concepts in the 1960s, and incorporated scenario planning in corporate planning. This school has roots in the work of Herman Kahn, and was mostly developed by the Shell (at the time, Royal Dutch/Shell) corporation’s scenario planning team, led by Pierre Wack and, later, Peter Schwartz. Shell implemented scenario planning as a permanent fixture in their strategy after Wack’s work gave the corporation an immense advantage in the 1973 oil crisis, and the approach was later further developed by GBN (Global Business Network) and SRI (Stanford Research Institute) International, both founded by Schwartz.  Kees van der Heijden, another unforgettable name in scenario planning, was also responsible for the Shell team and distilled and formalized much of Wack’s and Schwartz’s ideas in his seminal 1996 book Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation.

La Prospective, or the French school of Foresight, with well-known contributors such as Gaston Berger, Pierre Masé, Jacques Lesourne, Bertrand and Hugues de Jouvenel, Michel Godet, and Fabienne Goux-Baudiment. This school of thought is associated with various methods and frameworks, some first put forward by other thinkers and then significantly expanded upon by them. The morphological method, for instance, was first put forward by Fritz Zwicky in the 1960s; it identifies the different facets of and the possible solutions for components related to the focal issue.

The Probabilistic Modified Trends school, which includes names such as Theodore Jay Gordon, Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey, linked to RAND Corporation. This school encompasses several methodologies: Trend-Impact Analysis and Cross Impact Analysis are probabilistic forecasting tools that can be used alone or as a way of generating a set of alternative futures. The Delphi method is a structured reflection and communication process through which experts provide their opinion, anonymously and in several rounds with feedback, on subjects of which there is incomplete and uncertain knowledge.

Paul Goodwin, George Wright, and the Extreme World Method, which starts with the identification of both the trends that may impact the issue of concern and the critical uncertainties. It assesses how the uncertainties can translate into positive or negative impacts on the issue of concern and creates two extreme scenarios by grouping them.

Michael Porter and the Industry Scenarios Approach: a vision for scenario planning influenced by Shell’s use of scenarios and developed with several scenario planners and strategists (e.g., Pierre Wack, Richard Rumelt) that presents a method for the construction of industry scenarios and for the definition of competitive strategies in conditions of uncertainty.

Jim Dator and the Manoa’s four generic images of the futures: a model of conception and use of alternative futures according to four basic images - Grow, Collapse/New Beginnings, Discipline, or Transform. Moreover, Wendy Schultz structured the Manoa Method, a platform for modelling how alternative futures unfold that is designed to explore the impact of emerging issues.

Riel Miller and the Futures Literacy: a hybrid method for collecting theory and practice to improve management and public policy; this is done by improving governance and empowering people to use the future more effectively and efficiently, overcoming the illusion of certainty.

Peter Bishop, David Hines and the Framework Foresight: a method for carrying out Foresight projects (and teach students) that is a modular approach to explore the future, substituting or supplementing other methods or techniques at various steps.

Richard Slaughter and the Integral Futures: a Foresight approach that emerged from the work of Ken Wilber, drawing knowledge from many fields of knowledge and providing a deeper insight into the nature and dynamics of individual agency, and a pathway to social Foresight.

Joseph Voros and the Generic Foresight Process: a diagnostic tool to assess the implementation of Foresight and strategy initiatives as well as to customize Foresight projects, the result of the work of Henry Mintzberg, Averil Horton and Richard Slaughter. In Australia, one can also highlight the research and education work of Peter Hayward.

Eleonora Masini, Aurelio Peccei and the Social Forecasting Approach: sometimes labeled as the Italian Foresight School, it became widely known with the foundation of the Club of Rome, and advocates a sociological stance and assumes that it is human action that shapes the prospective future.

Jerome Glenn and his leadership of the Millennium Project (that he co-founded with Theodore Gordon), a global participatory think-tank aiming at improving humanity’s prospects of a better future. It has grown over 60 nodes around the world, connecting local and global perspectives. Among other contributions, Glenn also developed the Futures Wheel, a method for identifying and clustering primary, secondary, and tertiary consequences of trends, events, emerging issues, and possible future decisions.

Sohail Inayatullah and the Causal Layered Analysis: a methodology for creating more effective policies and strategies that brings together various “epistemic modes” and is composed of four layers: litany, social, and structural, worldview, and myth/metaphor. Inayatullah aimed to go beyond the forecasting techniques traditionally used, which he felt were overly focused on surface-level data. Inayatullah’s theory proposes to delve deeper into underlying (deep) causes and cultural norms and narratives that shape societies and therefore futures.

Erich Jantsch, Ian Miles, Michael Keenan, Ben Martin and the Technological Foresight movement: practical tools to observe the long-term future of science, technology, the economy and society, bringing together prominent members of business and academia to identify the emerging technologies that will probably produce the greatest economic and social benefits. The Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology (PREST) at the University of Manchester and the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at the University of Sussex are two relevant international references. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission also regularly engages in technological foresight, with, for instance, a 2023 report on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation in which ALVA collaborated.

The Finnish Foresight ecosystem with institutions like the Committee for the Future, an established, standing committee in the Parliament of Finland that serves as a think-tank for futures, science and technology policy with the mission to generate dialogue with the government on major future problems and opportunities, and The Finland Futures Research Centre at the University of Turku. Jari Kaivo-oja and Elina Halttunen are just two of the many highly relevant and impactful contributors for the field.

Wendell Bell, a key author that has built ground-breaking knowledge and systematized theories and practices, particularly with his two-volume Foundations of Futures Studies.